Wow, Week 1 was… bizarre -- to say the least. I don’t think I’ve ever finished with a worse ‘Pick ‘Em’ correct percentage than what I posted in any Week 1 before -- 50%.
Could the games have been scripted any crazier? Every single primetime game happened the exact opposite of what I and many others had forecasted.
Don’t worry, I’m not here to rant about my miscues, rather I’m here to be your version of Grocery Outlet, DFS style! (all salaries courtesy of FanDuel)
QB: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers ($7,100, QB19 at cost)
Having played six games so far in calendar year 2023 -- two regular season games and three playoff games -- Purdy has thrown only one interception. As efficient as it gets, I’m baffled Purdy is so cheap, given the plethora of weapons in his arsenal.
You can do a lot worse than Purdy as your starting QB, both in real life and in fantasy. He doesn’t have the highest upside, but his floor is stable enough to warrant starting consideration just about every week. Until I see him not perform, he’s a QB I love moving forward.
RB: Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts ($6,100, RB32 at cost)
After having been held out of Week 1 (arm), Moss is expected to give it a go in Week 2 in Houston vs the Texans. With Jonathan Taylor still on the PUP list and rookie RB Evan Hull having been recently placed on IR (knee), this Colts backfield is ripe for the taking for Moss.
I’m worried about Deon Jackson’s ghastly Week 1 – 18 touches for 28 scrimmage yards and two lost fumbles. Moss averaged 83.5 rushing yards per game -- on 4.8 yards per carry -- in the last four games last season.
In a divisional matchup where Moss’ only competition for touches (goal-line included) is an already-banged up QB Anthony Richardson, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moss rush for more than 100 yards in his first game back.
WR: Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,300, WR75 at cost)
The memes about Toney’s hands (or lack thereof) have been hilarious, but let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers. He was targeted on 50% of his routes while only playng 26% of the snaps. He also tied for the team lead in targets with five.
People forget, he missed essentially all of training camp and the preseason because of a torn meniscus, so rust and a lack of rhythm was definitely a factor. Add in that Travis Kelce is likely to play Week 2 against the Jaguars, and there will be less attention on Toney in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.
Everyone’s down on Toney, but here’s your chance to come up with a potential steal, given his measly price point.
WR: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($5,700, WR52 at cost)
MT is back, baby! Perhaps FanDuel hasn’t caught on yet. C’mon y’all -- WR52? I know, I know. It’s just one game. But five receptions (on eight targets) for 61 yards in his first game back?
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Clearly, the new Saints offense can support multiple pass catchers in fantasy, perhaps three given the emergence of Rashid Shaheed, and Thomas will benefit from that.
In a divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers who’ll be missing promising young cornerback Jaycee Horn, I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas clears 100 yards and puts up a vintage performance. He’ll only continue to earn Derek Carr’s trust throughout the season, and he will also have Chris Olave soaking up attention. Don’t be surprised if you find him in another one of these articles down the line.
Test Drive the Contrarian Edge Optimizer for 7 Days, $1!
TE: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions ($5,100, TE20 at cost)
As the season goes along, don’t be surprised if LaPorta ends up becoming a backend TE1. His usage in Week 1, along with his talent, supports that notion, even if the sample size is less than ideal.
As a guy who covers the Seattle Seahawks, I know how vulnerable Seattle can be in the middle of the field in defending the pass (and especially tight ends), and that’s where LaPorta will contribute for the Lions. In another matchup that’s expected to fill up the scoreboard, LaPorta is an absolute bargain as the TE20.
FLEX: DJ Moore, Chicago Bears ($6,100, WR39 at cost)
Look, I get it. Two receptions for 25 yards isn’t an ideal start to the season, but let’s not forget Moore had to go up against one of the best cornerbacks in all of football in Jaire Alexander of the Green Bay Packers.
That Bears offense was a mess, but the cheeseheads also boast one of the better units in the league, so take Moore’s Week 1’s performance with a grain of salt.
While I don’t want this to come off as downplaying their opponent -- the Buccaneers also boast a very athletic and nasty defense -- Tampa Bay doesn’t have a Jaire Alexander on the other side of the ball.
In addition, Moore has plenty of history going up against the Bucs, with and without Tom Brady, dating back to his time with the Carolina Panthers. Just last season alone, Moore compiled 13 receptions (on 20 targets) for 186 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in two games against the Bucs. I expect him to bounce back. More Moore, please!
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